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Re: Cattle prices [Re: Homer Jay] #8530402 02/13/22 03:40 PM
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Big_Country01 Offline
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Originally Posted by Homer Jay
Originally Posted by 3kcattle
If you need beef, buy from local producers. We will grow em and harvest them for you. Cut out the multiple middle men. They are obviously corrupt.


How does a city dweller like me get into a deal like that? I have an empty chest freezer in the garage.

What should I be paying for a processed side of beef?


I sold a few to members here via the classified section. Last years harvest came out very tasty. I only have one steer lined up this year but may have a cow or two if they dont produce well this go around.


Re: Cattle prices [Re: Big_Country01] #8530927 02/14/22 02:09 AM
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Homer Jay Offline
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Originally Posted by Big_Country01
Originally Posted by Homer Jay
Originally Posted by 3kcattle
If you need beef, buy from local producers. We will grow em and harvest them for you. Cut out the multiple middle men. They are obviously corrupt.


How does a city dweller like me get into a deal like that? I have an empty chest freezer in the garage.

What should I be paying for a processed side of beef?


I sold a few to members here via the classified section. Last years harvest came out very tasty. I only have one steer lined up this year but may have a cow or two if they dont produce well this go around.


Okay, thank you! I'll keep an eye on the classified boards. Is there a particular time of the year that ranchers are selling, or is it a year round sort of set-up? Thanks again.


"Like a slice of fried gold!"
Re: Cattle prices [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8531039 02/14/22 04:18 AM
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TLew Online Content
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A little internal talk, one of the big 4 I consult with has worked tirelessly to keep their margins the same on protein. I know we want to blame the big disassembly/packers, but some are trying to do the right thing

Re: Cattle prices [Re: TLew] #8531143 02/14/22 02:08 PM
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BOBO the Clown Online Content OP
kind of a big deal
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Originally Posted by TLew
A little internal talk, one of the big 4 I consult with has worked tirelessly to keep their margins the same on protein. I know we want to blame the big disassembly/packers, but some are trying to do the right thing



DOJ investigation is one thing, DOJ law suit says otherwise.

What we see at ground level interaction would never be blatant, you wouldn’t get you employees to follow it. It’s a long term plan and go to market strategy, that employees never see complete picture of. Employees would only a see or be given a glimpse of what their part was. As a glimpse it may seem normal or working tirelessly to keep margins at a certain level down.


Bottom line, never trust a man whose uncle was eaten by cannibals.-Sen Joni Ernst
Re: Cattle prices [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8531276 02/14/22 04:42 PM
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mickeyhft Offline
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Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted by mickeyhft
This might push me to start that direct from the ranch to the consumer grass fed beef business I have been thinking and talking about forever!


That speciality market exists now. It has lowest barriers to entry and lowest market cap. It’s also has pretty tight margins because of your now low stocking rates, lower growth weights and low volume processing. You won’t have many synergies, but the direct to consumer model has lots of appeal as it’s growing exponentially.

If you are going to do it I would highly suggest adding Akuuski(similar) to help your growth weights and even appearance of grading


I've been following some of these outfits, led to finding my new favorite podcast, the 6 Ranch, hunting and ranching both! I've been converting some wheat ground over back to range, might be a good fit for this in the near future. I do like what those Akaushi's bring to the table, been looking at those, maybe in a cross bred with Red Angus and Crillo's. Those Crillo's and even Corrientes have been showing some interesting things with some other grass fed, direct marketing outfits.


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Re: Cattle prices [Re: mickeyhft] #8531301 02/14/22 05:05 PM
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BOBO the Clown Online Content OP
kind of a big deal
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Originally Posted by mickeyhft
Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted by mickeyhft
This might push me to start that direct from the ranch to the consumer grass fed beef business I have been thinking and talking about forever!


That speciality market exists now. It has lowest barriers to entry and lowest market cap. It’s also has pretty tight margins because of your now low stocking rates, lower growth weights and low volume processing. You won’t have many synergies, but the direct to consumer model has lots of appeal as it’s growing exponentially.

If you are going to do it I would highly suggest adding Akuuski(similar) to help your growth weights and even appearance of grading


I've been following some of these outfits, led to finding my new favorite podcast, the 6 Ranch, hunting and ranching both! I've been converting some wheat ground over back to range, might be a good fit for this in the near future. I do like what those Akaushi's bring to the table, been looking at those, maybe in a cross bred with Red Angus and Crillo's. Those Crillo's and even Corrientes have been showing some interesting things with some other grass fed, direct marketing outfits.


Buddy runs Akaushi On red angus. It defines what a good calf looks like, but if they DNA out 50%, basically pre sold at a very nice price. Something to consider if you don’t want to carry calves over so long, or atleast it’s a good hedge to mix it up some.


Bottom line, never trust a man whose uncle was eaten by cannibals.-Sen Joni Ernst
Re: Cattle prices [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8531317 02/14/22 05:16 PM
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That's a great point about the pre selling of calves and carrying them over for so long, because in the first phase of this, it would be much easier to not keep them after weaning. I would want to move to that eventually, but I'll need more cross fencing! Thanks for the insights!


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Re: Cattle prices [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8532561 02/16/22 03:05 AM
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ndhunter Offline
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Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted by ndhunter
Do you think it is due to a concentration of packers controlling price or just huge surge in demand stretching supplies?


IMO

It's two fold as it's a cattle population and market owner ship. As US human population grows our cattle numbers decline. Remember the mad cow scare in late 90’s? That caused a shift in weights coming out if the feedlots. Mad cow at that time had never been found in a cow under 2 years. So you saw a sublte shift in cows finishing younger. Which meant less yield. To over come this, and a perceived cow shortage, USDA allowed higher importation of Non-US beef and a labeling change. To be far we have been declining in cattle numbers since 1980’s, but more of a trend them then a fall off if that makes sense. If beef prices followed inflation or no substituting from out of country, I personally don't think cattle numbers would be trending down, as the incentive to grow and keep a herd would be there. This is even with habitat fragmentation. But nonetheless cattle numbers is the number one issue. If you can import cheaper then buy local, you can slowly deter local incentive to produce.

Number two is, In the mean time while we started importing beef, JBS bought about half the US feedlot capacity via 5 rivers and a few other independents. Now add in that just 4 companies control 74% of processing, and you start seeing some dangerous synergies.

When you can influence feeder market from start to finish you can cause shortages for other smaller processors, which can be considered price fixing. You can also influence or deter retained ownership of yearlings coming into the feeder system via pricing, which is also price fixing. Essentially you can set the feeder market at both ends of process since you control the processing too. Now add in the fact you are can import any time to supplement demand, and you have a pretty fail safe go-to market strategy.

Again It didn't happen over night, covid just highlighted it, JBS had record profits in 20/21 as cattle prices stay stagnant but consumers prices have risen exponentially. You know what else trended up the n 20/21 imported beef.
.

I grew up in a large feedlot, and still run a few potloads every years, and in all my life I've never had a feeder finish the feedlot and not get bought.


This has been 40 years in the making, the ranchers have been yelling about it. it just hit the consumers so now it's being questioned



I wrote all this on iPhone mini so please pardon grammatical issues. Between font size, finger size and evil auto-correct I'm doomed.


Long explanation but good info. JBS does control a lot of the levers and they seem to be gradually acquiring the rest.

Re: Cattle prices [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8534008 02/17/22 07:38 PM
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Definite uptick at West last Thursday.........


Packer cows and bulls - $2 to $5 higher. Pairs & bred cows - $50 higher. #1 stocker steers and heifers - $5 to $10 higher. #1 feeder steers and heifers - $5 to $10 higher. Participating in this sale were 306 consignors and 102 buyers.


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