Posted By: Nolanco
The freeze and the grid - 01/11/24 07:58 PM
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Another Blast of Cold Air
Texas is about to get hit by an Arctic blast. Are we ready? Here's what to look for as the third major winter cold snap in four years approaches.
DOUG LEWIN
JAN 11
Image Credit: National Weather Service Houston
Don’t forget: free subscribers can upgrade to a premium subscription for 30% off. The offer expires tomorrow. Paid subscribers have access to premium content including exclusive articles and podcast episodes, the Texas Grid Roundup, liveblogs and Q&A’s, special monthly Zoom presentations, and full access to the archives. Redeem the offer now to access these benefits.
Texans — me included — have collective PTSD from Winter Storm Uri. Every time it gets cold, we get worried, and with good reason: the grid is not yet reliable enough, and another Uri almost certainly would cause rolling outages.
But the Arctic blast that will hit next week, while extreme, does not appear to be as severe as Winter Storm Uri. It’s very important to note that forecasts and conditions can change quickly, especially with climate change. But for now, this looks more like Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 — which did not cause rolling outages — than Uri in 2021, which did.
Further, as I’ve written before, another Uri hitting now would almost certainly not produce outages of the magnitude and duration we saw in 2021. In the wake of Uri, the legislature and PUC passed the most basic grid reforms — like requiring the registration of critical natural gas infrastructure and weatherization of power plants. It’s not nearly enough, but coupled with market-driven increases in solar generation and energy storage, a Uri-like storm would probably be less destructive today.
How Next Week Looks Today
Probably obviously, much of what happens next week will depend on the weather. Every degree colder, and every additional bit of snow or ice, increases the probabilities of rolling outages. Forecasts three or four days ago were showing a statewide average low at or near 32 degrees; now they’re showing ~15-degree lows. If temperatures drop into the single digits across most of the state, it will be a very different situation. But as it stands now, rolling outages due to high demand and low supply look very unlikely.
Average temperatures statewide are currently projected to be in the Dec. 2022 range, well above the February 15-16,2021 levels.
Here’s what to watch for as early next week’s cold front draws closer:
Is there snow and ice? Cold without snow and ice means less damage to machinery. It also means that when things do break, crews can more easily get to power plants and gas fields and fix frozen equipment. That’s much, much harder with snow or ice — it was a major difference between Uri and Elliott in Texas.
How low do temperatures go, and how high does demand go? Temperatures are not currently forecast to drop significantly below where they were in December 2022, and there were no rolling outages then. Power demand reached about 74 gigawatts then; ERCOT is currently projecting demand of about 80 gigawatts — a huge number, but one they believe generators can cover.
How much gas supply goes offline? Before the power went out in February 2021, gas throughput in the Permian Basin was down about 43% (see below); during Elliott in December 2022, it was down 34%. Some equipment is going to break in the cold; it will be telling to see what happens here given the Railroad Commission’s laissez-faire approach to regulating weatherization standards. As FERC and NERC recently reminded Texas, overreliance on gas during extreme weather is dangerous. The amount of concern about the gas supply next week speaks to that.
Source: University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute
How many thermal power plants go offline? In Uri, it was about 30 gigawatts. During Elliott it was “only” 14 gigawatts, but that’s more than twice what ERCOT expected in wintertime. This is another key factor, but the PUC has been much more active and effective than the Railroad Commission in preparing the infrastructure it oversees for deep freezes.
Thermal power plant outages reached a peak of 14,000 megawatts on the morning of December 23 during Winter Storm Elliott. [Source: ERCOT]
How much wind and solar production is there? After Uri, there was a dishonest rush to blame renewables for the Uri outages; the main causes were actually freezing of gas supply and gas power plants and extremely high demand. Since then, solar and storage have grown substantially and renewables are likely to be quite valuable next week. Winter mornings are the times of highest risk; there is no morning where Texas wind is expected to generate less than 10,000 megawatts. Solar is similarly forecast to produce at least 7,000 megawatts around noon, which will be valuable during these upcoming bitter cold days.
As this list demonstrates, for rolling outages to take place, most or even all of these factors would have to break the wrong way. It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible.
Climate Impacts: We’ve Seen This Movie Before
A few days ago, when the forecasts for Jan. 15 were still at or near freezing, I started feeling like we’ve seen this movie before: warnings of a weakening polar vortex, steadily worsening forecasts each day ... This is what happened in February 2021 and December 2022. And it’s happening again.
These severe storms did not used to be so common. But this will be the third time in four winters that one has hit Texas. This underscores the growing body of data that suggests climate change is fueling Arctic warming, which weakens the polar vortex (a jet stream-like air current 10-30 miles above the Earth) allowing Arctic blasts and exceptionally low temperatures into the continental US.
Monique Sellers of the National Weather Service talked with the Dallas Morning News about the connection to climate change: “Climate change plays a role, Sellers said. The average winter temperature in Texas is rising. But conditions are also more volatile, with intense, short-term freezes increasing in likelihood each year.”
“‘One of the confounding conundrums of climate change is that winter has become warmer, but we have more deep freezes,’ Sellers said.”
We’re unfortunately getting more evidence of this with each passing year.
Texas is growing. If future winter storms are going to be more extreme, we need to be ready. Peak demand on cold winter mornings is growing at a stunning rate; if that keeps up, we won’t be able to meet the demand, even with new taxpayer funded generation.
We’ve got to act — quickly — to address the other side of the supply-demand equation.
We Need to Address Demand
Texas’ biggest vulnerabilities next week aren’t just frozen pipes and power plants — equally problematic are inefficient heaters in poorly insulated homes. We desperately need to address it.
The legislature did pass a bill last year (Senate Bill 1699) requiring the PUC to increase energy efficiency in Texas: "The commission by rule shall establish goals in the ERCOT power region to reduce the average total residential load" (Utilities Code Section 39.919 and page 4, line 6 of the bill). Yet more than seven months after that bill was signed by the Governor, the PUC still hasn’t even started a rulemaking process for it.
During Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT estimated that demand would have been 77 gigawatts. We don’t know how much it actually would have been, since generators topped out at about 50 gigawatts of power on Feb. 15 or 16, prompting the crisis. But Texas A&M researchers estimated that demand would have been 82 gigawatts during the storm; a team of UT researchers recently estimated power demand would have hit 87 gigawatts.
The state’s all-time record for electricity demand — which we hit in August, more than two fast-growing years after Uri — was 85.5 gigawatts.
State officials who fixate on multi-billion dollar power plant spending sprees won’t be able to solve these problems if they fail to address inefficient heat in poorly insulated homes. You can read a lot more about that here, but during Uri’s worst, demand for this inefficient heat in poorly insulated homes was probably about 30-40 gigawatts.
It’s obviously too late to do anything about this winter, but if we’re going to reduce demand before next winter, the PUC needs to start now.
Utilities will file their 2025 energy efficiency plans in less than three months. Shortly after that, the state is in line for $690 million from the Inflation Reduction Act for energy efficiency initiatives. Utility plans and the IRA money should be laser-focused on efficient HVAC units, better insulation, and smart thermostats.
If the PUC, the State Energy Conservation Office, and ERCOT collaborate with stakeholders and set this up right, Texas could reduce demand 1-2 gigawatts per year. That would be significant year-round — during the winter, it could be the difference between cold blackouts and a warm house.
SB 1699, and the opportunity to make 2024 the year of energy efficiency, will be the topic of my next newsletter..
Be prepared. Take care of the 4P’s: people, pets, pipes, and plants. Stay safe and stay tuned for more updates soon.
Another Blast of Cold Air
Texas is about to get hit by an Arctic blast. Are we ready? Here's what to look for as the third major winter cold snap in four years approaches.
DOUG LEWIN
JAN 11
Image Credit: National Weather Service Houston
Don’t forget: free subscribers can upgrade to a premium subscription for 30% off. The offer expires tomorrow. Paid subscribers have access to premium content including exclusive articles and podcast episodes, the Texas Grid Roundup, liveblogs and Q&A’s, special monthly Zoom presentations, and full access to the archives. Redeem the offer now to access these benefits.
Texans — me included — have collective PTSD from Winter Storm Uri. Every time it gets cold, we get worried, and with good reason: the grid is not yet reliable enough, and another Uri almost certainly would cause rolling outages.
But the Arctic blast that will hit next week, while extreme, does not appear to be as severe as Winter Storm Uri. It’s very important to note that forecasts and conditions can change quickly, especially with climate change. But for now, this looks more like Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 — which did not cause rolling outages — than Uri in 2021, which did.
Further, as I’ve written before, another Uri hitting now would almost certainly not produce outages of the magnitude and duration we saw in 2021. In the wake of Uri, the legislature and PUC passed the most basic grid reforms — like requiring the registration of critical natural gas infrastructure and weatherization of power plants. It’s not nearly enough, but coupled with market-driven increases in solar generation and energy storage, a Uri-like storm would probably be less destructive today.
How Next Week Looks Today
Probably obviously, much of what happens next week will depend on the weather. Every degree colder, and every additional bit of snow or ice, increases the probabilities of rolling outages. Forecasts three or four days ago were showing a statewide average low at or near 32 degrees; now they’re showing ~15-degree lows. If temperatures drop into the single digits across most of the state, it will be a very different situation. But as it stands now, rolling outages due to high demand and low supply look very unlikely.
Average temperatures statewide are currently projected to be in the Dec. 2022 range, well above the February 15-16,2021 levels.
Here’s what to watch for as early next week’s cold front draws closer:
Is there snow and ice? Cold without snow and ice means less damage to machinery. It also means that when things do break, crews can more easily get to power plants and gas fields and fix frozen equipment. That’s much, much harder with snow or ice — it was a major difference between Uri and Elliott in Texas.
How low do temperatures go, and how high does demand go? Temperatures are not currently forecast to drop significantly below where they were in December 2022, and there were no rolling outages then. Power demand reached about 74 gigawatts then; ERCOT is currently projecting demand of about 80 gigawatts — a huge number, but one they believe generators can cover.
How much gas supply goes offline? Before the power went out in February 2021, gas throughput in the Permian Basin was down about 43% (see below); during Elliott in December 2022, it was down 34%. Some equipment is going to break in the cold; it will be telling to see what happens here given the Railroad Commission’s laissez-faire approach to regulating weatherization standards. As FERC and NERC recently reminded Texas, overreliance on gas during extreme weather is dangerous. The amount of concern about the gas supply next week speaks to that.
Source: University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute
How many thermal power plants go offline? In Uri, it was about 30 gigawatts. During Elliott it was “only” 14 gigawatts, but that’s more than twice what ERCOT expected in wintertime. This is another key factor, but the PUC has been much more active and effective than the Railroad Commission in preparing the infrastructure it oversees for deep freezes.
Thermal power plant outages reached a peak of 14,000 megawatts on the morning of December 23 during Winter Storm Elliott. [Source: ERCOT]
How much wind and solar production is there? After Uri, there was a dishonest rush to blame renewables for the Uri outages; the main causes were actually freezing of gas supply and gas power plants and extremely high demand. Since then, solar and storage have grown substantially and renewables are likely to be quite valuable next week. Winter mornings are the times of highest risk; there is no morning where Texas wind is expected to generate less than 10,000 megawatts. Solar is similarly forecast to produce at least 7,000 megawatts around noon, which will be valuable during these upcoming bitter cold days.
As this list demonstrates, for rolling outages to take place, most or even all of these factors would have to break the wrong way. It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible.
Climate Impacts: We’ve Seen This Movie Before
A few days ago, when the forecasts for Jan. 15 were still at or near freezing, I started feeling like we’ve seen this movie before: warnings of a weakening polar vortex, steadily worsening forecasts each day ... This is what happened in February 2021 and December 2022. And it’s happening again.
These severe storms did not used to be so common. But this will be the third time in four winters that one has hit Texas. This underscores the growing body of data that suggests climate change is fueling Arctic warming, which weakens the polar vortex (a jet stream-like air current 10-30 miles above the Earth) allowing Arctic blasts and exceptionally low temperatures into the continental US.
Monique Sellers of the National Weather Service talked with the Dallas Morning News about the connection to climate change: “Climate change plays a role, Sellers said. The average winter temperature in Texas is rising. But conditions are also more volatile, with intense, short-term freezes increasing in likelihood each year.”
“‘One of the confounding conundrums of climate change is that winter has become warmer, but we have more deep freezes,’ Sellers said.”
We’re unfortunately getting more evidence of this with each passing year.
Texas is growing. If future winter storms are going to be more extreme, we need to be ready. Peak demand on cold winter mornings is growing at a stunning rate; if that keeps up, we won’t be able to meet the demand, even with new taxpayer funded generation.
We’ve got to act — quickly — to address the other side of the supply-demand equation.
We Need to Address Demand
Texas’ biggest vulnerabilities next week aren’t just frozen pipes and power plants — equally problematic are inefficient heaters in poorly insulated homes. We desperately need to address it.
The legislature did pass a bill last year (Senate Bill 1699) requiring the PUC to increase energy efficiency in Texas: "The commission by rule shall establish goals in the ERCOT power region to reduce the average total residential load" (Utilities Code Section 39.919 and page 4, line 6 of the bill). Yet more than seven months after that bill was signed by the Governor, the PUC still hasn’t even started a rulemaking process for it.
During Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT estimated that demand would have been 77 gigawatts. We don’t know how much it actually would have been, since generators topped out at about 50 gigawatts of power on Feb. 15 or 16, prompting the crisis. But Texas A&M researchers estimated that demand would have been 82 gigawatts during the storm; a team of UT researchers recently estimated power demand would have hit 87 gigawatts.
The state’s all-time record for electricity demand — which we hit in August, more than two fast-growing years after Uri — was 85.5 gigawatts.
State officials who fixate on multi-billion dollar power plant spending sprees won’t be able to solve these problems if they fail to address inefficient heat in poorly insulated homes. You can read a lot more about that here, but during Uri’s worst, demand for this inefficient heat in poorly insulated homes was probably about 30-40 gigawatts.
It’s obviously too late to do anything about this winter, but if we’re going to reduce demand before next winter, the PUC needs to start now.
Utilities will file their 2025 energy efficiency plans in less than three months. Shortly after that, the state is in line for $690 million from the Inflation Reduction Act for energy efficiency initiatives. Utility plans and the IRA money should be laser-focused on efficient HVAC units, better insulation, and smart thermostats.
If the PUC, the State Energy Conservation Office, and ERCOT collaborate with stakeholders and set this up right, Texas could reduce demand 1-2 gigawatts per year. That would be significant year-round — during the winter, it could be the difference between cold blackouts and a warm house.
SB 1699, and the opportunity to make 2024 the year of energy efficiency, will be the topic of my next newsletter..
Be prepared. Take care of the 4P’s: people, pets, pipes, and plants. Stay safe and stay tuned for more updates soon.
