Producing record oil BS

There’s absolutely no way we are producing record oil in the US. But i cant find any articles disputing this. Biden on day one shut down keystone pipeline and started cancelling any expired drilling leases. You cant do this and have record production at the same time. Let alone higher gas. Can someone back me up with a link

Sumbitch doesn’t care about production. He’s a tree hugger.

You don't need an article. You can easily go to the source. This is where any article would get their production information. There's all sorts of data freely available.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M


Keep in mind the Keystone Pipeline was to bring crude oil from Alberta, Canada (another country) to the USA.

We already have a huge network of pipelines across this country. The environmental BS for the Keystone never made any sense to me. There was some some underlying motivation.

the largest producers (wells)in the US are on private, the most profitable are offshore.

He did try to curtail production in Texas with reinstating some methane restriction/mandates that trump dumped

Then why has gas been substantially higher the first week biden came in. Average is $3.60 today
And this is with him draining our emergency reserves to a 40 year low to lower the prices

I saw diesel for $3.25 today. Still got a way to go to get to $1.60 before JB.

Gasoline and related products are higher all over the world except in areas with specific price controls.

By emergency reserves, if you are referring to the strategic petroleum reserves, a politician might be able to influence the price of refined gasoline and related products in the USA by a few minor cents for a couple of weeks, by playing with the reserves. That's largely a political gesture as I understand.

If you are wanting to better understand the price of gasoline then you need to also look at refining capacity and production.

Timing is everything. This all started exactly when biden came in office. In fact he campaigned he was cutting back on fossil fuels. Not buying biden has nothing to do with it

Couple of weeks ago talked to a guy who's company rebuilds oil derricks. He said he is sending most of them to South America, Brazil and Argentina. I think he made the comment that OK has a pretty low count of active drilling now.

Rig count.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs

Oh Ya! You the man Tbar!

That's more than I pay for non-ethanol 91 octane.
87 octane E10 is about a dollar less than you said.
Of course one could argue it's still too high...

I always watch the rig count. It was the lowest (254 rigs) in 8-2020 when I was laid off and just decided to retire early. I don`t think you can compare the rig count # today to the same count 10 years ago though. They are way more efficient at what they do today.

He didn’t just cancel any expired leases, on day one he also cancelled any future permits for offshore oil & gas production (what I do). I know what it looks like for this industry to be booming, and this ain’t it. No way we are producing record oil right now.

Turk, the chart is an eye opener. I was drinking the keystone kool aid. The usual question is demand vs supply. Thus , if we are producing a record amount and there is no shortage, the question is who is controlling prices. Big oil, Arabs, and other suppliers are colluding with the assistance or at least awareness of the US government.

I don’t care if the Keystone came mostly from Canada. The pipeline was built and the supply was here. This smacks of collusion between the US government and big oil world wide.

Current national average is $3.21. Thankfully we're about 60 cents below that in TX, but there are places around the country that are much higher. I was in Colorado last summer and was surprised to have to pay nearly $1/gal extra over TX prices. Shipping to locations distant from refineries is $$$.

JB, he's a good 'un ain't he! WPOS!!!!

Consider what .gov has done with the reporting of inflation, the consumer price index, and the cost of living...by changing the rules on how the calculations are done, they dramatically move the needle in their favor. At the risk of a ban, I'll also remind people about the apparent manipulation of hospital beds and death rates from a couple of years ago.

Does anyone think that a government agency called the "U.S. Energy Information Administration" might be changing the rules on how oils supply is calculated?

With regard to oil and gas prices: The current administration is working overtime to increase the cost of producing fossil fuel based energy. Additional environments regulations and restrictions are at the forefront of that, but permitting, additional reporting, and the like is also increasing cost. Rewinding a few years, there was a public comment by someone in the current administration that the plan was to increased the cost of gasoline $1/year until it forced the use of alternative energy.

Now factor in the the impact of inflation into the energy industries cost to produce that gallon of gasoline, fuel oil, or diesel. Depending on the source you choose, 19.2% to 21.3 are the "real" inflation numbers thrown around.

Honestly, I'm just glad the cost is not higher than it is today. We need a political shift to hope for any improvement in energy prices.

It never made sense to me that US oil producers would want tar oil in the market, refiners yes, producers no.

We do have record US crude oil production. Pipeline and refining capacity as mentioned above, are one reason prices aren't lower than they are.

He's a CCP puppet.

One could, since it was $1.89 in November of 20.

Good read on petro supply and demand

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ame...meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude

Thanks

It’s more than just the USA president. Skinner’s post I believe explains well the Biden impact for the USA.

yelp just highlights how liberal EPA has handicapped US, not only on domestic production but also refining of domestic peto

This hits the nail on the head. Government agencies are notorious for data manipulation, (lies). Plus there is the demand issue. To summarize a number of economists that you won't see on Fox Business, CNN, etc., we are already in a recession. You can't judge that by stocks. There are only a 5-7 stocks floating that boat. The Biden administration changed the technical definition of a recession in the past year or so. A lady named Danielle DiMartino Booth that used to work for the Dallas Federal Reserve said in the past week that corporate and personal bankruptcies are through the roof. You likely have already read that credit card debt is at all time highs. I/we get pop ups all the time advertising Home Equity loans. Discretionary driving is way down.

An oil chart of January 2020 shows an oil low in the low $20's. However I remember that there was an intraday trade that went into the negative territory. How that worked I don't know. What I think I do remember was that it was simply supply/demand related. There were ships floating around the bays parked with oil that they couldn't unload.

True. I was recently in Kodiak, AK and the regular 87 oct. was $4.91-$4.99.

We're around $3.50 here in PA. Taxed into oblivion...

Weekly Cushing, OK Ending Stocks Excluding SPR Of Crude Oil

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL&f=W

Rig count can be deceiving. With the horizontals drilling 6 to 8 wells per location it kind of skews the numbers. I haven't seen a vertical rig operating around here in over 3 years.

The U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA) was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Pub. L. 95-91).

"EIA is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The Administration collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the Nation’s premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government."

Information produced by this agency is generally regarded as pretty accurate.




Please share some reliable links to that information where they state we are already in a recession and what metrics they used. It would be interesting to read and see the economist qualifications. Also keep in mind there's an old saying that if you ask 10 economists a question, you're going to get 10 different answers.



You can't judge a recession by stocks.



Which ones? That's also going to be good information for your portfolio.



What did they change it from to? How was it before and what is it now?


High levels of oil production doesn't necessarily mean things are good or bad with the economy. I'm not insinuating the economy is good or bad, or in support of this imbecile administration.

Better question what is the Real current inflation number last 2 years and was the REAL inflation used in its adjustment for GDP…..

Devils always in the details. Most American dont have time to dig into the details.


No president can directly control actual US private land production, POTUS can influence whats released from National Strategic reserves, permitting and EPA regulations, So he does have tremendous oversight in efficiency.


They can also steer, domestic refinery direction and capacity via EPA controls and Permitting

Along those lines is how the economic health is typically measured. People need to keep in mind we go through business cycles up and down. It's also much more of a global economy than it used to be. US policy through can definitely influence the slope of those curves.

Didn't the Arabs announce an increase in their oil production about 10 days ago?

Cuts instead of increase

Oil Prices Jump on Calls for More OPEC Production Cuts

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-prices-jump-opec-cuts-a57f8112

Turkey Hunter, You have a pretty tall stack of quotes that I can’t quote. I’ll try the best I can to reply to your questions.

“Please share some reliable links to that information where they state we are already in a recession and what metrics they used. It would be interesting to read and see the economist qualifications. Also keep in mind there's an old saying that if you ask 10 economists a question, you're going to get 10 different answers.”

David Rosenberg has been an economist for quite a long time and is reputable.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-economist-david-rosenberg-says-180214233.html

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

“There are only a 5-7 stocks floating that boat. Which ones? That's also going to be good information for your portfolio.”

The “Magnificent Seven” get referred to a lot in both MSM and online financial articles. I have heard several stock analysts say that if only a few of these seven drop that the index will drop a lot.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-...-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"The Biden administration changed the technical definition of a recession in the past year or so.

What did they change it from to? How was it before and what is it now?"

I know I have read what I stated. However, I cannot find a source that doesn't tiptoe all over this subject. This Newsweek article pretty much says what I stated, but really sugarcoats it and maybe rebuts that statement.

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-white-house-change-definition-recession-1727641

You are correct TurkeyHunter but retail prices seems to have decreased since that time.

Thank you DannyB. Looking forward to reading the links, Traveling in Minnesota at the moment and will have a look when I get back to the room.

I’m not an energy expert but we have some on here. Maybe someone can help explain? I understand crude price does affect gasoline price as we have obviously experienced over the years. However in modern times there is also a major influence on price from refining capacity and associated gasoline supply/demand.

Speculators may also play a role.

No I don't think the verticals skewed this graph. They have been totally flat lined the last few years.
FWIW we haven't seen a vertical since 2015.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52138

How old are you turkey hunter? All your questions show me your a millennial. Every one of them. The US doesnt follow other countries economy .

The stock market is measured by the top 500 companies in the US. If the top 500 companies are down 20% or more we are in a recession. Its an excellent gage to show if we are in a recession. But you millennials cant run a lemon aid stand to know this

He’s not a millennial. He just likes to take an opposing viewpoint, even when it doesn’t make sense. Not exactly a troll, but similar.

I guess I'll be the one that takes an opposing viewpoint for a second. The S&P is the top 500 companies and is one of the exchanges that make up the stock market. DJIA is only 30 companies. NASDAQ is over 1,400. My point here isn't to criticize semantics but to set the stage that each of these companies is globally affected by their cross border operations, geopolitical activity, etc.. This does not denote a recession -- a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Sure, stocks follow, but that doesn't define a recession. 20% off of a index indicates a bear market

Look, it sounds like you know what you’re talking about, but it’s difficult for me to take anyone seriously when they don’t know the proper use of “a” and “an.” You know, basic stuff. I didn’t even bring up punctuation.

What in the world are you talking about? Be specific

He was upset with my single misuse of "a" and "an", and he was unhappy with a few, fast punctuation issues. In other words, he's playing grammar police today to lighten the mood.

Grammar is no laughing matter.

Sneaky cracks me up!

Yall carry on. I'm just lurking to learn.

Just giving TLew a hard time.

Specifically, he didn't put a period at the end of "Be specific".

Not intending to deliver an opposing view but rather food for thought.

David Rosenberg is qualified and has an interesting interpretation of economic data supplied by the US government. The article is from May 2023 and is about Q4-2022 and Q1-2023. His interpretation doesn't fit the most commonly accepted definition of a recession. Economists often have their own varying interpretations. There's an old saying that if you consult 10 different economists you will get 10 different answers. Regardless of any economist viewpoint, I believe it has been a rocky period and 2024 may be looking kind of gray as well.

The Magnificent Seven, composed of key tech stocks, are boosting the S&P 500 for now. But that's not really an economic indicator. It's a stock market indicator. Notice the chart in the article. Even when you remove the Magnificent Seven, the S&P 500(493) may not be ideal but currently not showing doom & gloom, yet.

The Newsweek article is actually a Fact Check that declares such FALSE about the recession definition. But even if the imbecile white house changed it to whatever they feel like, it still doesn't make their definition valid. They don't set such an interpretation by decree that every business, economist etc has to follow.

Pasted from the Newsweek article.

"False.

The White House website did not change its definition of what a recession is, as it never had one to begin with. As a web presence of the incumbent president, it regularly features information that favors the current administration. The web page referred to on social media was a blog arguing how the popular definition of recession is too narrow. It also states that the U.S. relies on the non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research as its "official recession scorekeeper." The social media posts misleadingly crop out the headline and other information to misrepresent the nature —and exaggerate the significance—of an editorial piece. "

I didn’t want to tread too far into your turf.

I can empathize with blanked, we don’t like periods in our house either — they ruin almost a week out of the month

Corrected to:

[The USA doesn’t follow other countries’ economies.]

Don’t know where you got that, but the USA is definitely interlaced with and interdependent on the global economy.

Actually, I think it's "countries' ," but I could be wrong. I've been wrong once before.

I believe you are right on the money. Good catch!

This article indicates the industry broke a record on 12/15. I think it is credible. Take the win.
US Producers Break Record