Covid-19 percentages...

Immediately after hearing the number of deaths on the news. This is the number of total deaths in the U.S. THEY REPORTED I wrote this down in another form.

But 70% of us are going to get it.... Why do you think liquor stores are essential! Alcohol kills it.

Numbers, they do not matter unless you are one them, and if you are dead, it matters to your family and friends. Otherwise too many people do not give a flip.

Help is on the way.

The surge in the US has not even started yet, check back May 1st......

People die from cancer, heat attacks, flu, car wrecks, accidents, war, homicide....and old age...

People die and it matters to their friends and family....

What’s your point....

Ok, those that don't give a flip are the ones that eat up whatever the media feeds them. They're told to stay home, they stay home. They're told to panic, they panic. Then there's the rest of us that look at this mathematically and can tell others, "just calm down".

Here are some more numbers for those that care to look at them. Oh, there's some words too.


"During the severe 2017-2018 flu season , one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu. Additionally, as of late October 2018, 185 pediatric deaths had been reported to CDC during the 2017-2018 season"

2019-2020
The most recent statistics, collected through the week ending January 25, 2020, report that there have been 19 million cases of influenza during US 2019-20 flu season.

Additionally, the CDC has recorded 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from the flu thus far. Based on these figures, severity is not considered high at this point in the flu season.

Over the past week the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia rose to 6.7% but remains below the epidemic threshold of 7.2%. Additionally, the hospitalization rate rose from 24.1 per 100,000 to 29.7 per 100,000, which is considered to be consistent with this time of year from recent seasons."

February 5, 2020

Those numbers would be encouraging if not for the fact that the most of the 143K are still active cases. Divide the 2500 by the sum of the deaths and recovered cases and you'll get the true death rate.

JR

Might be wearing halo's too....

The point of this really is more to suggest everyone carefully watch and listen to what the media is feeding them day ti day, week to week. Lots of people do that already anyway. But we can watch what numbers they feed us. Not he said, she said.

11362 cases have come to conclusion, 4095 deaths, 7267 recoveries..do the math. Granted it take longer to recover than to die.

I, for one, am GD sick of this. You seem to post it on every thread, often multiple times. Help, as it is called, is devaluing the dollar, and will last weeks, not even months. Then we plunge into a depression that will cause more deaths from malnutrition, disease, and crime than we ever would have had from COVID19. It will just kill us for years instead of a few months.

Anyway, happy late birthday Bill.

Someone has gone off the deep end.

You’re right, the question is which one of us.

Stop with all this positivity Bill. Let's us wallow, will ya......

The mortality rate is how many deaths vs how many infected people.
The numbers being thrown around do NOT include the actual number of infected people. We do not know how many people are infected.

We do know that there are many "silent/mild" cases that will never be reported.

Dig into the numbers and you will find a sudden and dramatic fall in reported flu cases and deaths - when they should be peaking now. It is highly likely that Covid 19 has been running through our population since December/January.

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
– Winston Churchill


“In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.”
— Albert Einstein

Latest world population estimates are about 7.8 Billion
It is likely that everyone in the planet is going to get this bug but let’s say it is only half and say 3.9 Billion get infected due to immunity anomalies and vaccines.
That would mean the current death rate using then number of reported deaths is 3.9B\44,216= 0.000011337435897
Using that percentage means approx 4,422,600 people around the world are “potentially” going to die.

Can we all go back to work now??

The issue is we don't exactly know the numbers but we do know how fast it spreads. I appears to be deadlier than the seasonal flu but not nearly as deadly as SARS or MERS, and for certain segments of the population maybe on par with the 1918 Flu epidemic.

The issue is the current rate of spread and incubation period.

If we do nothing then the economy most likely gets shut down by itself in a completely unorganized fashion, which makes matters worse.

We will get through this and in the long run the economy won't be effected. If you look at economic tables you can hardly register the 1918 global epidemic. It will be interested to see how the private sector handles the short term economy. Even if millions go 'bankrupt' corporations will still need the masses to fill out the work force.

I have been shut down since March 12 and we just got another directive from Abbott that indicates we will be shut down for another month. If I got bankrupt I am still necessary to re-open the office, so short term economic downturns don't really come into my consideration, since we will all be in the same boat.

What I am concerned about is if a large number of first responders, truckers, doctors, etc go down too quickly too close together then we really have a problem.

It is like a bullpen. Ideally you want to save these essential people so you can effectively manage 'rolling blackouts' for a long duration and not go into game 7 with all your top arms used up.

I agree.

I hope you are right about the economic standpoint.

I can tell you we are taking drastic measures to protect ourselves from infection while answering calls to people with respiratory symptoms. Things I never expected to see, we are now being told to do by the chiefs and medical director. People are still get fast, and quality care, but we are having to play the long game and really watch out for ourselves at the same time.

Flu peaks in March? Are you sure? Also if covid 19 has been running wild since December, shouldn't there be a body count? CDC heard about the virus in Dec. I'm pretty sure they would of had their ear to the ground. They would of know about any clusters of pneumonia.

There were lots of people that had flu like symptoms in November and December. Went to the doctor, and tested negative for Flu A and Flu B. Mild fever and a cough for 10 days. Nothing was diagnosed, so it could have been Covid-19 and they just got over it. I know several people that got sick like this, in those months. But they're in their 30's and 40's and in very good physical condition.

Correlation does not imply causation.

Those that think they had or possibly had covid 19 months ago can be confirmed or denied via serum testing ( blood test) and if proven true could be a source of antibodies that would lead to rapid production of covid 19 treatments and a vaccine.

So if you probably had it, possibly, coulda had it, step up.

If you went to a doctor with symptoms of covid 19 months ago the doctor will have records that can be passed along to the CDC, a simple blood test will tell the story of either you did or you didn't, the info could possibly help others.

Keeping in mind the typical influenza tests are only considered 50% - 70% accurate.
So more likely you could've been one of the 30% to 50% that get a false negative flu test.

I like how she rolls into the earth is flat thing! Lol

Good read on the situation

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/31/experts-coronavirus-cdc-158313

Thanks for that. It was a good read regarding trust and misinformation.


I just want to throw it out there...that the number of deaths would likely rise from the 1.7% as calculated above, or 2% to higher if we weren't doing social distancing, or taking precautions to slow the spread and just went on as business as usual. Those are numbers based on when these precautions are put in place, and can now be expected where healthcare is relatively accessible. The numbers will differ regionally. I am sure in areas where healthcare is less accessible, that number would also be higher.

I don't have the time to do it, but I'd be more interested to see what percentage of people are hospitalized due to this, versus how many beds there are in the US, how many ventilators there are in the US, and then see how quickly it would take to overload the entire US healthcare system. Then calculate/model what the death rate may be if we went on as business as usual- because those really are the limiting factors (that I see) and the things keeping the death rate low right now. For those of you wondering what the big deal is, this is the real number that should be calculated- not using numbers being calculated during drastic social measures- because they wouldn't be valid anymore since transmission rates are currently lower.

For example on regional effects: where I live in rural Alaska there a 58 villages that are serviced by 1 hospital. The estimated people population is 25,000 people in our region. None of the villages have ventilators because all they have are clinics run by a nurse or CNA, so anyone that contracts it that needs a ventilator has to go to the hospital. The hospital has 5 ventilators. 5 ventilators for a population of 25000 people. And no actual ICU. And the staff is already re-using masks and PPE because of the shortage. When the coronavirus gets here, the death toll will be much higher than 2% without these drastic measures put in place. I suspect other rural areas in the lower 48 would have similar issues- but I don't know for sure. In all of Alaska, there are estimated only 200 ventilators in the entire state. If someone is on a ventilator for 14 days...there aren't many ventilators available for others. It wouldn't take long to overload the healthcare system here.

Plus as someone has mentioned, what happens when/if our healthcare staff come down with it because social precautions aren't being taken (which may happen anyways without proper PPE), and they can no longer treat the people that subsequently come down with it? I wouldn't expect that number to stay at 1-2% if the number of people contracting it and needing healthcare overloads a dwindling staff and medical supplies. Right now there are affects being seen in the hotspots of New York and Chicago.Travelling nurses are being offered $10K a week (my wife got an email offer) to put themselves in known danger and help with covid patients in New York. Because there is shortage of healthcare workers due to them getting sick themselves, and so many patients. If this occurred all over the US...theres not enough healthcare workers in the US to go to all the places needing more help, and death percentages would likely increase in all age groups due to lack of available care.

Whether you believe the coronavirus is a real threat or not to you personally, whether you think it is a way to control everyone's civil liberties, or you believe sacrificing yourself is worth it for our economy, or just don't trust any sort of government organization: when the consensus among health care professionals, scientists, pathologists, and everyone else all over the WORLD looking at this thing puts out warnings- you should probably be concerned, conspiracy theory or not.

I dont think it is just our economy taking a hit. Every major country around the world being affected because they are all social distancing, shutting down factories, shutting down businesses- but some others are being affected less because they took early action, tested more people, and have been able to deal with it better. And some countries citizens are complying better than we are- so it is more effective. Whether you agree or not on our countries implementing drastic social actions was timely or slow or too far reaching...those countries that acted early and tested more people do have a lower death count, and have a lower amount of spread, and will (may) be able to recover economically faster than us because their workforce is healthy and ready. And until this coronavirus has taken its course across the world, all countries economies will be affected from tourism, from months of being a stagnant economy, and from the lives lost.

but thats just my . Most of you don't know me in person, so my opinion likely carries the same weight as a grain of sand. Just felt compelled to share it.

Last time I got really sick with "flu like symptoms" and went to the doctor I tested negative for Flu and Strep as well. They called it a upper respitory infection of some kind and gave me a bunch of goodies that didn't work. That was in 2007. Im pretty sure I didn't have Wu Flu in 2007.

My point is everyone has a story like that but just because it was close to the beginning of Wu Flu doesn't make it Wu Flu. Look at all the tests that are being done right now. Way less than half come back positive for Wu Flu and they wont even test you unless you have the symptoms. I haven't heard anyone with any kind pandemic expertise say this stuff has been floating around the U.S. for that long undetected.

Very well articulated Duck Buster. A couple of other points to consider on mortality rate...I believe the correct calculation method is #dead/#cases resolved (i.e. the disease has run its course and the patient either healed or passed away) and not just those who have tested positive since the disease takes so long to run its course. Of course, we will never truly know the total number infected since so many appear to have little or no symptoms and, therefore, did not get tested.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has warned violators of coronavirus lockdown measures they could be shot for causing trouble and said abuse of medical workers was a serious crime that would not be tolerated.

Lots of things Aren't Tolerated in country's Your Not From...

One of the best posts I have seen on here regarding the situation.

I suppose I am more concerned than most cause right now I am living it every day. People that are on leave or working from home get comfort in the fact that them and their family are safe once they go past the two week critical period. I don't get that luxury, my two weeks starts over everyday I walk through these doors. I spent most my day yesterday converting OR rooms to a make shift ICU cause at our rate we will be out of ventilators by the weekend. It's unfortunate, but if you didn't contract it early on if and when you do at this point just hope a vent is not needed as they will be mostly unavailable.
Walking into work this morning I got choked up at the chalk drawings on the parking lot below the patient room windows from family members that can't see, touch, or hug their love ones.

Georgia governor @BrianKempGA just found out asymptomatic people can shed the virus. What planet has this guy been on the last couple months? How could he just be learning this? How?

That was walked back as hyperbole by the top chief of police in the Philippines.

The entire country is hooked on shabu

Shabu is killing more people by the thousands compared to corona

Dog would have an absolute field day in Manilla. Well, maybe not, he would have been shot within 72 hrs by them gangs. Them gangs would drop you for six fitty.

https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...es-dead-rodrigo-duterte-drug-war/595978/

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainme...s-related-spokesman-unclear-test-results

India will be horrifying.
Corona just hit Mumbai.
1 million people live in the slum, less than 1 square mile.
Healthcare workers were stoned by the population for trying to screen a patient today.
India has one of the worst health care system in the World, Italy was second best.
They have 10.6 ventilators per 1 million inhabitants and are forced to hook 2 patients to one machine.
It will hands down be the country with the most death.

You don't get it. The concern is that our health system could get over overwhelmed. It is why we are trying to flatten the curve. Now I do not agree with how we are doing it, but I do understand why, but you don't is my point.

Why are people so afraid to die?

Human nature,

I'm grateful I was able to get my two children to adult hood. Cherry on top would be to get 10 years of retirement. Fingers crossed.

I think people are more worried about others than themselves. I know if my mother gets this she is a gonner...But she will tell you she is not afraid.

Ventilators.

I don’t know why this is such a big deal, I’ve heard they are the kids of death. Little chance of recovery.

Wonder what percentage make it off?

That’s certainly understandable. I have my doubts as to the majority, but I’d like to believe there’s plenty that do fall into that category.

I won’t go visit my folks during this and it kinda sucks

I see mine but only to bring them food. Mom still doesn’t understand why I will only stand at the door and talk.

Not going turkey hunting at my aunt and uncles because I don’t want to risk harming them.

That is not an accurate %
The death % is only accurate compared to those that have recovered.
There is still a % of those that have it will not live through it.

So, if you got it and had zero symptoms are you one of the recovered and would you be used to calculate the death rate?

There is no way to put an accurate number to this mess. But to consider all current cases as full recovery is not accurate.

I get a hell of a lot more than you do, I can assure you. We have new protocols in place, and the tones keep coming for breathing difficulty calls. We're answering several of them a shift. We've got to put masks on all patients and lots of PPE on ourselves. Then there's our younger guys having to ride in the ambulance with potential infectious patients in close quarters. A Captain at my station is also part of an EMS task force in conjunction with TXDPS. A huge list is compiled of Doctors and Nurses that can come help if needed. And guess what, politicians are f-ing this up.

The numbers I postes were from that day. The point of them is to hopefully calm some people down.

It is sobering to know that New York is renting refer trailers to store the overload of dead bodies.

Hong kong is business as usual
Pretty much everything is open
Cases going down.

The difference: almost all people have been wearing masks from the beginning.
Their government had plenty and they distributed it to their folks to avoid folks hoarding them.
And we have been told to make our own, since very lil are available.
So much for government pandemic preparedness after ebola, swine and sars.
I think im gonna buy a ventilator, 6 months of masks and gloves and sanitizers when this thing is over for the next one next year.

I know its very hard to admit, but lets face it: We were fooled by our own government saying : “this is just like the flu, It will go away, dont you worry” to now: This is very very serious stuff and being on pretty much total lockdown till May.

I agree. Government run healthcare is not the answer. The private sector would do a much better job if they were turned loose. And I'm saying this from inside the healthcare system.

I agree, and Trump knows that.
Thats why he called on the private sector, never mind 3M

So, what the hell is really going on here?

Dr. Fauci said it was nothing to worry about in January..

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-hOSZ3...amp;utm_campaign=embed_video_watch_again

Dr Fauci on Hydroxychloroquine “You got to be careful when you say ‘fairly effective.’ It was never done in a clinical trial… It was given to individuals and felt that maybe it worked.”

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1241040667113132035

Dr Fauci now says you can't rely on models..

Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...uses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/

Dr. Fauci Went from a Possible 1.7 Million US Deaths Due to Coronavirus to a Possible 200,000 US Deaths in 14 Days.

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1239165855633756160

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1244473172801523715

Dr. Birx (*Her medical license is not valid)

Dr. Birx Went All-In on Bill Gates-Funded Coronavirus Model - Sits on Gates-Funded Foundation Board

Dr. Birx decided to throw away several proposed models for the Coronavirus outbreak and went all-in on a single model funded by Bill Gates. As TGP reported Thursday, the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) model for the Coronavirus the White House is relying on is complete garbage. The US economy has been virtually shut down, unemployment spiked and small businesses are on the verge of shuttering based on faulty projections. The IHME model, which is funded by Bill Gates, is using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the US. It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized Wednesday over the Coronavirus. The actual number? 31,142.

the plandemic is not working as they thought.
2017

Anything to get rid of Trump....no matter how many lives it costs....

Looks like the books are getting cooked..

The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, or ICD, has established the code U07.1 for death by coronavirus infection. There’s a secondary code, U07.2, “for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available,” according to the CDC guidance.

“Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.”

Therein lies the problem.

“The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID- 19 being the underlying cause more often than not,” the guidelines read.



https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-...medium=protrumpnews&utm_campaign=can

2019
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...e-Outbreak-2019-Netflix-Documentary.html
2018
https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-warns-the-next-pandemic-disease-is-coming-2018-4?op=1

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cdc-borrowing-pneumonia-deaths-from-flu-covid-19-james-lyons-weiler

Gates:

WATCH NOW
VIDEO04:05
Bill Gates steps down from Microsoft board
“This is a nightmare scenario because human-to-human transmittal respiratory viruses can grow exponentially,” he said. “And you know, if we had kept on going to work, traveling like we were, you know, that curve would never bend until you had the majority of the people infected and then a massive number seeking hospital care and lots of lots of deaths.”

Gates predicted things won’t “go back to truly normal until we have a vaccine that we’ve gotten out to basically the entire world.”

Gates said previously that the U.S. missed its chance to avoid mandated shutdowns because it didn’t act fast enough on the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

In 2015, Gates warned that a disease more than a war was a threat to causing millions of deaths in the decades to come.

Folks in Africa are ready to kill gates and his vaccines, mexico the same as the vaccines caused infertility in thousands of young girls. On the others side of that coin , no one thinks it a bit odd a "computer geek" is behind so many of the vaccines. Then you look at facts his dad was heavily into eugenics . The apple did fall to far from the tree with the bill the "computer guy". This guy is such a visionary he is ahead of the curve on everything...

1 good thing about COVID 19 is that all other death numbers are in free fall.. if it's worse than a hangnail, it get blamed on CV19. SMDH..

The percentages are on the rise, and the spectrum of those dying is widening.